Jane Street Market Prediction is a forecasting competition with an active training phase and a second period where models will be run against real market returns.
In reality, trading for profit has always been a difficult problem to solve, even more so in today’s fast-moving and complex financial markets. Electronic trading allows for thousands of transactions to occur within a fraction of a second, resulting in nearly unlimited opportunities to potentially find and take advantage of price differences in real time.
In a perfectly efficient market, buyers and sellers would have all the agency and information needed to make rational trading decisions. As a result, products would always remain at their “fair values” and never be undervalued or overpriced. However, financial markets are not perfectly efficient in the real world.
Developing trading strategies to identify and take advantage of inefficiencies is challenging. Even if a strategy is profitable now, it may not be in the future, and market volatility makes it impossible to predict the profitability of any given trade with certainty. As a result, it can be hard to distinguish good luck from having made a good trading decision.
In the first three months of this challenge, you will build your own quantitative trading model to maximize returns using market data from a major global stock exchange. Next, you’ll test the predictiveness of your models against future market returns and receive feedback on the leaderboard.
Your challenge will be to use the historical data, mathematical tools, and technological tools at your disposal to create a model that gets as close to certainty as possible. You will be presented with a number of potential trading opportunities, which your model must choose whether to accept or reject.
In general, if one is able to generate a highly predictive model which selects the right trades to execute, they would also be playing an important role in sending the market signals that push prices closer to “fair” values. That is, a better model will mean the market will be more efficient going forward. However, developing good models will be challenging for many reasons, including a very low signal-to-noise ratio, potential redundancy, strong feature correlation, and difficulty of coming up with a proper mathematical formulation.
Jane Street has spent decades developing their own trading models and machine learning solutions to identify profitable opportunities and quickly decide whether to execute trades. These models help Jane Street trade thousands of financial products each day across 200 trading venues around the world.
Admittedly, this challenge far oversimplifies the depth of the quantitative problems Jane Streeters work on daily, and Jane Street is happy with the performance of its existing trading model for this particular question. However, there’s nothing like a good puzzle, and this challenge will hopefully serve as a fun introduction to a type of data science problem that a Jane Streeter might tackle on a daily basis. Jane Street looks forward to seeing the new and creative approaches the Kaggle community will take to solve this trading challenge.
- 1st Place – $40,000
- 2nd Place – $20,000
- 3rd Place – $10,000
- 4th – 9th Place – $5,000